Whether Cardano (ada to usd) can come back to the $1 mark is based on several variables including technological advancement, ecological growth and market cycles. Based on on-chain data, the average number of transactions per day on Cardano in the second quarter of 2024 equaled 1.2 billion US dollars, a 85% year-on-year increase for the same quarter of 2023. Utilizing its smart contract platform Hydra increased the network transaction processing speed (TPS) from 257 to 780 and reduced the cost of a transaction per transaction to 0.12 US dollars (a decrease by 55%). This has resulted in the number of decentralized applications (DApps) on the chain increasing from 3,400 in 2023 to 6,200 as of August 2024, while the total locked value (TVL) on the chain exceeded 1.5 billion US dollars, reaching a growth rate of 400% per annum. Among them, the scale of the liquidity pool of the decentralized exchange Minswap exceeded 420 million US dollars, accounting for 28% of the TVL of the ecosystem. If development work remains at the same pace (with a daily average of 1,500 code submissions), the ada to usd exchange rate might accelerate its march towards $1.
Market structure of demand and supply indicates upward space. As of July 2024, 74% of the ADA in circulation is being locked up by long-term holders, with an average holding cost of $0.48, an 85% premium over the current price ($0.89). The exchange reserves dropped to 2.1 billion ADA (7% of the circulation), the lowest level since 2020, while the staking ratio rose from 68% to 77%, with the annualized return at 5.1%, attracting over 34 billion ADA into network validation. The open ADA futures contract reached 1.8 billion US dollars in August 2024, with longs occupying 82%, from data provided by CoinGlass. The probability of betting on the price crossing 1 US dollar increased to 65% (using the option implied volatility model). Institutional holdings in terms of the asset under management (AUM) of Grayscale Cardano Trust (GDLC) increased to $840 million, accounting for 6.3% of its overall crypto holdings, a 120% increase from 2023.
Regulation and adoption of globalization are the fundamental pillars supporting prices. In June of 2024, Cardano was among the first set of compliant public chains in the EU’s Crypto Markets Act (MiCA), driving the average daily trading volume for its Euro trading pair (ADA/EUR) to 370 million euros, or 9% of the European crypto market. The African market has come a long way. Cardano’s government-supported digital identity program in partnership with the Ethiopian government has hit 5 million users, with a daily average of over 800,000 on-chain verification requests. Meanwhile, partnership with telecommunication firm World Mobile has integrated ADA payment into a 6 million-strong base of users across Tanzania and Kenya. Shift the trading volume share of ada to usd in the African market from 4% in 2023 to 12%. Additionally, the Central Bank of Brazil certified ADA as a cross-border remittance tool in the third quarter of 2024, processing a transaction volume of 220 million US dollars in one month and reducing handling fees by 70%.
Historical cycles and market sentiment are also significant factors. ADA had hit an all-time high of $3.10 in September 2021. The price now has fallen by 71% from the high, but has increased by 271% from its 2022 low ($0.24). As per the Cryptocurrency Volatility Index (CVI), ADA’s 30-day annualized volatility has fallen from 90% in 2023 to 65% in 2024, increasing price stability. When Bitcoin surpasses $120,000 after the 2025 halving (predicted by ARK Invest), ADA can rise with BTC due to its 0.82 correlation coefficient. Information from technical analysis website TradingView shows that the weekly relative strength index (RSI) for ADA/USD is 58, not crossing the overbought region. Additionally, the Fibonacci retracement level indicates that $1.05 is a strong resistance point. Having passed through, the potential positive could extend to $1.50.
in summary, technical upgrades, lock-up staking, regulatory compliance and cyclical sympathy pave the way for ada to usd to return to $1. Despite near-term market adjustment risk (support level of $0.75), the ongoing growth in active on-chain addresses (average daily 580,000) and DApp users (monthly active 4.8 million) indicates that accumulation of ecological value is gaining momentum. Bloomberg analysts predict that there is a 70% probability that ADA will cross $1 in the first quarter of 2025, with an average annual return rate of 95% to 130%, and its market cap should be approximately $40 billion (currently, it is $31 billion).