Professional institutions adopt multi-factor quantitative models to construct price prediction frameworks. VanEck’s crypto valuation model incorporates 13 core variables, among which the on-chain staking yield accounts for 18% of the weight. Currently, the actual annualized staking yield of MANGO is 7.2%, which is lower than the critical value of 9.5% required to maintain market value (refer to the 2022 Cardano Staking Yield and Price Correlation Study). Bloomberg Industry Research introduced a technology progress correction factor. Due to the 148-day delay in the mainnet 2.0 upgrade, the project’s technology execution score was reduced from 0.78 to 0.61 (out of 1), resulting in a 23% downward revision of the target price. On-chain data company Santiment, by monitoring the net outflow of whale addresses within 90 days reaching 37 million, deduced the probability distribution of a six-month decline: the probability of falling below $0.75 is 42%.
Economic model simulation reveals structural risks. The Tokenomics Simulator developed by Grayscale Investment shows that in the scenario of an annual inflation rate of 5% and a circulation of 860 million tokens, the project party unlocked 18 million tokens in October (currently worth approximately 15.5 million US dollars), requiring an average of 840,000 US dollars of additional funds per day to cover the selling pressure. However, the current net inflow to the exchange is only 210,000 US dollars per day, and the liquidity gap reaches 300%. What is more serious is that the staking release mechanism has design flaws: According to the actual on-chain data, 280,000 tokens enter the market due to unstaking every day, but the newly staked amount is only 190,000, and the net circulation volume continues to grow (with a daily growth rate of 0.11%). Such issues once led to a 31% weekly price plunge during the Aptos economic model crisis in 2023.
Market sentiment and derivatives indicators are included in the dynamic adjustment. The sentiment analysis system of Amber Group tracked the frequency of social media keywords and found that the mention rate of “mainnet delay” increased by 220% monthly, and the negative sentiment index rose to 0.79 (the threshold of 0.6 triggered the alarm). The derivatives market has simultaneously released danger signals: the perpetual contract funding rate on the Bitget exchange has remained at -0.021% (8-hour average), the open interest volume has shrunk by 37% over the past half month, and the Delta offset value has reached -0.33 (indicating that short selling forces are dominant). Quantitative institution K33 calculated using the volatility surface model that the 30-day implied volatility is as high as 82%, far exceeding Bitcoin’s 46%, and the probability of the price fluctuation exceeding 15% for the week is 78%.
The divergence in mango network token price prediction stems from the difference in regulatory risk weights. Coinbase’s institutional research adopts the regulatory risk discount factor. Based on the 65% probability of SEC lawsuits classifying PoS tokens as securities (court documents disclosed progress), it imposes a 34% valuation discount on projects like MANGO with a validator concentration of 44%. On the contrary, Messari’s industry optimism model cites the cross-chain track’s compound annual growth rate of 41% (predicted for 2023-2028), giving the ecosystem a valuation premium coefficient of 1.45. In terms of practical strategies, the crypto hedge fund Pantera Capital implements three-layer verification: Technically, there is a resistance level of $5.2 million at $0.92; The proportion of addresses with holding costs higher than $0.9 in the on-chain data is 61%. On a macro level, the volatility of Bitcoin must be below 35%, and all three conditions must be met simultaneously to trigger a buy signal. This strategy successfully avoided a 45% drawdown in Avalanche’s investment decisions in 2023.